📊 Battle Lab
Matchup Calculator
Pick two pencils and see the exact odds. Rather than simulating, this checks every possible pairing of barrel faces, so the win probability is precise rather than estimated — and it explains which numbers are driving the result.
How it works
- Each pencil has six faces, so a matchup has thirty-six possible pairings.
- Every pairing is equally likely, so counting the wins gives the exact probability.
- Consistency is derived from the standard deviation of the numbers actually read in this matchup.
- Upset probability is the chance the pencil with the lower average still wins the exchange.
Questions
Why is this exact rather than simulated?
With six faces each there are only thirty-six possible outcomes, so every one can be checked directly. Simulation would only approximate the answer this enumeration gives precisely.
What does consistency mean?
It reflects how tightly a pencil's readable numbers are clustered. A high consistency rating means results near the average most of the time; a low rating means big swings in both directions.
Can a pencil with a lower average still win?
Yes. A wide spread means it rolls badly more often but also rolls very high sometimes, and a single high roll wins the exchange outright. That chance is shown as the upset probability.